The link between under 18 conceptions and unemployment, England and Wales, 2008–10

Abstract

This short story examines the link between under 18 conceptions and unemployment in England and Wales. It forms part of a wider release containing an analytical toolkit looking at teenage conceptions and measures of deprivation and an article analysing teenage conceptions in relation to measures of deprivation.

Key points

• An analytical toolkit looking at teenage conceptions and measures of deprivation has been developed by ONS and is freely available online for the first time.

• An article analysing under 18 conceptions in relation to measures of deprivation has been published.

• With the exception of London, there was an east-west split in the link between under 18 conception rates and unemployment rates for England and Wales, 2008 to 2010.

• Of the English regions Yorkshire and The Humber had the strongest link between under 18 conception rates and unemployment rates for 2008 to 2010, while London had the weakest link for any of the English regions.

Under 18 conceptions and unemployment

From statistical analysis it was calculated that the unemployment rate accounted for 65% of the variation in the under 18 conception rate¹ at local authority level across England and Wales². This means that, broadly, the higher the unemployment rate, the higher the under 18 conception rate.

Map 1 shows the picture for the link between the under 18 conception rate and unemployment rate for 2008 to 10.

Map 1 - Under 18 conception rate and unemployment rate correlation values by region/country, England and Wales, 2008–10

Source: Office for National Statistics

 

Map 1 shows that there was an east-west split across England and Wales in how strongly correlated under 18 conception rates were with unemployment rates, with regions in the east generally showing a stronger link than in the west. There was also a north-south aspect as the north generally had a stronger link than the south. The only exception to the east-west split was London, which had a correlation value more in line with the west.

Yorkshire and The Humber had the strongest correlation at 88%, which means that the unemployment rates in the region accounted for 88% of the variation in the under 18 conception rates in the region for 2008 to 2010. This was nine percentage points more than the North East, which had the second strongest link between under 18 conception rates and unemployment rates at 79%. London had the lowest correlation value at 34%, twelve percentage points less than Wales which had the second lowest correlation value in England and Wales.

Notes for Under 18 conceptions and unemployment

1. The under 18 conception rate is the number of conceptions to women aged under 18 per 1,000 women aged 15 to 17 in the area concerned.
2. Regional correlation values have been calculated by plotting the relevant local authority rates for under 18 conceptions against unemployment and applying a trend line of best fit. The goodness of fit of the values against the line determines the correlation value. The closer the value is to 1 the more strongly correlated under 18 conceptions are with unemployment.

Background notes

1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk