Measuring tax gaps
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) statistics and methodological annexes relating to measuring tax gaps.
Documents
Details
This report provides an estimate of the tax gap across all taxes and duties administered by HMRC.
The tax gap is the difference between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid.
25 May 2021: Revision announcement
HMRC has made revisions to its historic tax receipts data (financial years between 2015 to 2016 and 2019 to 2020) which will have an impact on Measuring tax gaps. These revisions impact the VAT gap and the total tax gap for the financial year 2017 to 2018. Revised estimates of the tax gap will be published in ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition: tax gap estimates for 2019 to 2020’, which is due to be published on 16 September 2021. The latest receipts data is available in the 25 May 2021 HMRC tax receipts and National Insurance Contributions for the UK publication. More information on the receipts revisions can be found in the statistics announcement dated 25 May 2021
User survey - help us improve ‘Measuring tax gaps’
We are interested in understanding more about how the outputs and data from the ‘Measuring tax gaps’ publication are used, and the decisions they inform. This is important for us so we can provide a high quality publication that meets your needs.
Complete the HMRC Measuring tax gaps 2020 user survey.
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Methodological annex
The annex document provides more detail of the data and methodology used to produce estimates of the tax gap.
Online tables
The full data series can be seen in the online tables.
Archived tax gap reports
Previous editions of the tax gap reports are available on The National Archives website:
Further information and feedback
This statistical release has been produced by government analysts working within HMRC, in line with the values, principles and protocols set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
HMRC is committed to providing impartial quality statistics that meet user needs. We encourage users to engage with us so that we can improve the official statistics and identify gaps in the statistics that are produced.
You can also contact Anthony Burke directly with questions or comments about the ‘Measuring tax gaps’ series.
Last updated 25 May 2021 + show all updates
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Added revision announcement to the 'Details' section.
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Updated to correct errors identified in the behaviour breakdowns (pages 13 and 23) and the tobacco tax gap due to a correction in the cross-border shopping estimates (pages 20, 21, 25, 37, 41 to 46, and 54).
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Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2020 edition - tax gap estimates for 2018 to 2019', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2020 edition - methodological annex'.
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This release has been updated with a correction to the 2017 to 2018 lower estimate of the cigarette illicit market in Table 3.3.
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Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2019 edition - tax gap estimates for 2017 to 2018', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2019 edition: Methodological annex'.
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Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2018 edition - Tax gap estimates for 2016-17', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2018 edition: Methodological annex'.
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Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2017 edition - Tax gap estimates for 2015-16', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2017 edition: Methodological annex'
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New edition for 2016
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Amend to page 5 of Measuring Tax Gaps; the value of the tax gap by customer group for Individuals has been corrected to show £2.9 billion (rather than £2.1 billion).
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New edition for 2015
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New edition for 2014
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Update to include information for 2013
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First published.