Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Lord’s European Affairs Committee inquiry on trade in goods

Dear Chair,

I write in response to the European Affairs Committee’s call for evidence for the inquiry, Trade in goods.

As the Committee may be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the National Statistical Institute for the UK and the largest producer of official statistics. The ONS aims to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate.

Disruption after the Transition Period

The ONS publishes monthly statistical bulletins that detail the total value of UK exports and imports of goods and services in current prices and chained volume measures, which means they are adjusted for inflation. The most recent analysis details trade in goods measured in August 2021. Analysis for September 2021 is due to be published mid-November; I would be happy to share this with the Committee.

Previously announced timings of the UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in the past two years. While the monthly narrative provides continued analysis on the short-term disruption impacts, comparing 2021 with equivalent 2018 data provides comparisons of trade with our most recent “stable” period.

Figures 1 and 2 show that imports and exports of goods from non-EU countries continues to be higher than with EU countries, although the gap has narrowed. Table 1 shows a comparison of EU and non-EU trade in goods, in millions of GBP.

Figure 1: EU and non-EU goods imports, excluding precious metals, August 2018 to August 2021

Graph showing EU and non-EU goods imports, excluding precious metals, August 2018 to August 2021

Source: Office for National Statistics – UK trade statistics (current prices, seasonally adjusted) . For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Figure 2: EU and non-EU goods exports, excluding precious metals, August 2018 to August 2021

Graph showing EU and non-EU goods exports, excluding precious metals, August 2018 to August 2021

Source: Office for National Statistics – UK trade statistics (current prices, seasonally adjusted) . For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Table 1: Trade in goods, excluding precious metals, EU, and Non-EU comparison

DirectionPeriodEU, £mNon-EU, £mMonthly Comparison
Imports2021 Jan-Aug145 613153 352Non-EU larger in 8 out of 8 months
Imports2020232 382196 186EU larger in 12 out of 12 months
Imports2019269 568224 896EU larger in 12 out of 12 months
Imports2018267 210221 642EU larger in 12 out of 12 months
Exports2021 Jan - Aug99 384108 796Non-EU larger in 7 out of 8 months
Exports2020145 098152 595Non-EU larger in 11 out of 12 months
Exports2019170 111187 335Non-EU larger in 8 out of 12 months
Exports2018172 505176 684Non-EU larger in 9 out of 12 months

Impact of Pandemic

With the ongoing pandemic and recession, it is difficult to assess the extent to which the patterns seen in the tables and charts above reflect short-term trade disruption or longer-term supply chain adjustments.

Businesses reporting that the end of the EU transition period was their main importing or exporting challenge increased between the end of December 2020 and April 2021, as shown in Figure 3.

In addition, Figure 4 shows the number of weekly cargo and tanker ship visits to UK ports in January 2021 was on average 20.4% lower than January 2020, reflecting disruption in trade. The number of visits has since increased and in April 2021 became higher than the same period in 2020, although that partly reflects coronavirus impacting on the 2020 numbers.

Figure 3: Percentage of currently trading businesses that have reported experiencing challenges, weighted by count, December 2020 to April 2021

Graph showing percentage of currently trading businesses that have reported experiencing challenges, weighted by count, December 2020 to April 2021

Source: Office for National Statistics – Business Insights and Conditions Survey. For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Figure 4: UK cargo and tanker weekly visits, seven-day moving average, seasonally adjusted

Figure 4: UK cargo and tanker weekly visits, seven-day moving average, seasonally adjusted

Source: exactEarth. For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

Trading challenges – latest picture

In the two weeks to 3 October 2021, analysis of data from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) showed that 40% of exporters and 49% of importers reported that costs of exporting and importing respectively had increased compared with normal expectations; 37% of exporters and 43% of importers reported that time spent exporting and importing respectively had increased compared with normal expectations for the time of year; and the top 3 challenges for both exporters and importers were additional paperwork, change in transportation costs and customs duties or levies.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of any further assistance to this inquiry.

Yours sincerely,

Grant Fitzner

Director, Macroeconomic Statistics and Analysis

 

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Lord’s Youth Unemployment Committee inquiry on youth unemployment

Dear Lord Shipley,

While providing evidence at the Youth Unemployment Committee on 14 September, I promised to follow up with the Committee on the measurement of youth unemployment by economic background and latest figures for young people in employment or full-time education.

Measuring youth labour market status against economic background

The Committee were interested in analysis of youth labour market status by economic background.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) asks a series of questions on social mobility in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) in the July to September period each year. These questions refer to the household situation of the respondent when they were 14 years old, asking:

  • Where respondents lived
  • Household composition (i.e., with parents, with other family, not living with family)
  • Main wage earner in the household
  • Occupation of main wage earner (i.e., a parent/guardian, joint-earners, or no earners)
  • Whether main wage earner is an employee or self-employed

While economic background is a broad concept, this set of questions represent the best indicator available at the ONS to analyse the labour market status of young people against their economic background.

The ONS does not currently publish these data, and a full assessment of its quality needs to be completed. However, given the interest in this topic and following my appearance at the Committee, resources will be allocated to this assessment and we expect that this can be completed by the end of 2021.

Depending on the outcome of the assessment, if the quality of the data is sufficient to produce robust analysis, an indicative timeline to complete the analysis would be by April 2022. As part of the assessment, we will also develop a recommendation on how best to publish a breakdown of labour market status by economic background.

During the session, Lord Baker also commented that there were data in the education system that could further support analysis on this topic. We would, of course, be happy to explore this further in whatever way would be most suitable.

Young people in education, training, and employment

The Committee were also interested in a publication on the number of young people in education, training, and employment, including how these figures differed from statistics on young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET).

The ONS now publishes educational status and labour market status of people aged from 16 to 24 years in Table A06, using data sourced from the LFS. These data are published monthly alongside our summary of labour market statistics and gives the number of young people in employment and the number of young people in full-time education.

These estimates are published separately from the ONS’s quarterly NEET publication for several reasons. The NEET statistics and the Table A06 statistics are both derived from the LFS and use the same labour market statuses; however, the educational statuses are derived differently.

For Table A06, the educational status is based on participation in full-time education only. For NEET statistics, the educational status is based on any form of education or training. Therefore, the dataset A06 category “not in full-time education” includes some people who are in part-time education and/or some form of training and who, consequently, should not be regarded as NEET.

The latest data from the LFS shows there were 3.3 million 16- to 24-year-olds in full-time education, of which 900,000 were working and a further 200,000 looking for work. Meanwhile, of the 3.5 million 16- to 24-year-olds not in full-time education, 2.7 million were in employment, with the remainder neither in employment nor full-time education.

I hope this update is helpful to the Committee. Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of any further assistance.

Yours sincerely,

Darren Morgan, Director, Economic Statistics Production and Analysis 

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Lords COVID-19 Committee’s inquiry on the long-term impact of the pandemic on towns and cities

Dear Lady Lane-Fox,

I write in response to the COVID-19 Committee’s call for evidence for its inquiry into the long-term impact of the pandemic on towns and cities.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the National Statistical Institute for the UK and the largest producer of official statistics. The ONS aims to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate.

We have focussed this evidence on the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on access to both public and private greenspaces. We have also provided our latest analysis on the effects of the pandemic on the attitudes of businesses and workers towards the future of working practises.

I hope the Committee finds this submission useful. Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of any assistance.

Yours sincerely,

Jonathan Athow

Deputy National Statistician and Director General, Economic Statistics

Office for National Statistics (ONS) written evidence – The long-term impact of the pandemic on towns and cities

Green Spaces

In May 2020, in collaboration with Ordnance Survey, the ONS produced analysis of variable access to gardens and public greenspace in Great Britain. This work was based on both survey work from Natural England and analysis of the Ordnance Survey’s MasterMap.

Private Gardens

One in eight households (12%) in Great Britain has no access to a private or shared garden during the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. This rises to more than one in five households in London (21%) with no access to a private or shared garden. Gardens in London are 26% smaller than the national average and the smallest of any region or country in Great Britain.

We found that ethnic minorities and more deprived socioeconomic groups had significantly less access to private gardens. In England, Black respondents were nearly four times as likely as White respondents to have no access to outdoor space at home, whether it be a private or shared garden, a patio or a balcony (37% compared with 10%) according to Natural England’s Monitoring Engagement with the Natural Environment (MENE) survey.

Public Parks

More than a quarter of people (28%) in Great Britain live within 300m as the crow flies of a public park, while 72% live fewer 900m. Parks are most accessible in the poorest areas, with people in the most deprived neighbourhoods of England around twice as likely as those in the least deprived to be within five minutes’ walk of a public park (34% compared with 18%). 44% of London residents are within 300m of a park. The highest of any region or country in Great Britain.

Access to public parks is more evenly distributed, with people from minority ethnic groups almost as likely as White people to say their local greenspaces are “within easy walking distance” (86% compared with 88%).

Use of Greenspace during lockdown

The publication, “How has lockdown changed our relationship with nature?” collates a range of data sources to examine use of the outdoors during lockdown.

Between 7 and 11 April 2021, the ONS found that 28% of working adults worked exclusively from home. More than three-quarters (76%) of people who only worked from home in this period left home for exercise in the previous seven days, compared with 52% of people who travelled to work. Those working from home were also more likely to visit a park or local green space than those who travelled to work (45% compared with 30%).

Use of parks and public green spaces were up on previous years during summer 2020. Figure 2 shows how google mobility data for 2020 compared to the average use of parks in previous years based on Natural England’s MENE data.

Figure 2: Change in mobility to parks and public green spaces compared with a baseline period (3 January to 6 February 2020), Google mobility (UK, 2020) compared with Natural England (England, 2009 to 2018)

Change in mobility to parks and public green spaces compared with a baseline period (3 January to 6 February 2020), Google mobility (UK, 2020) compared with Natural England (England, 2009 to 2018)

Source: Google – COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, Natural England – Monitor of Engagement with the Natural Environment. For a more accessible version, please visit our accessibility policy.

MENE has recently been replaced by the People and Nature Survey (PANS) which reported throughout 2020 with experimental data. In May 2020, 36% of people responding to PANS said they were spending more time outside during the pandemic than before. This rose to 46% in July 2020.

In lockdown, those living closer to their nearest public green space were more likely to visit than those living further away. In the summer, after lockdown, the opposite was true, with people living further away from their nearest green space more likely to visit than those living closer.

This report also pointed to NEF analysis that highlighted concerns about overcrowding found that around one in eight people (12.5%) don’t believe that their local green space is of a high enough standard to want to spend time in. People on lower incomes report greater dissatisfaction with the quality of their green space than those on higher incomes.

The changing nature of employment

The ONS has published analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on office working and of business and individual attitudes to future working practice, which found the proportion of working adults who did any work from home in 2020 increased to 37% on average from 27% in 2019 with workers living in London the most likely to homework.

When asked about homeworking, working adults stated work-life balance was the greatest positive, while challenges of collaboration were the greatest negative.

Online job adverts including terms related to “homeworking” have increased at a faster rate than total adverts, with homeworking adverts in May 2021 three times above their February 2020 average.

Workers living in London were most likely to report working from home in the previous seven days. Those aged 30 to 49 years were most likely to report working from home, with almost half (45%) saying so compared with around one-third of those aged 16 to 29 years (34%) and 50 to 69 years (32%).

A similar proportion of businesses (31%) reported that their workforce was working remotely as restrictions eased in April and May 2021.

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Lords’ Public Services Committee’s inquiry into child vulnerability

Dear Lady Armstrong,

I write in response to the Lords Public Services Committee’s call for evidence for its inquiry into Child Vulnerability.

As the Committee will be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute and the largest producer of official statistics. The ONS aims to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate.

For this inquiry, we have set out the latest data and analysis that we produce relating to child vulnerability, for example on children’s well-being, their mental health and what we know about the extent of child abuse. Cross-cutting analysis is required to both identify and support vulnerable children, and so we have highlighted our work with both the Inclusive Data Taskforce and the UNECE taskforce on statistics on Children and Youth.

While we are developing our current statistics relating to child vulnerability, survey data collection for child vulnerability can be difficult, for a variety of reasons. We are working hard to identify and address remaining evidence gaps, particularly by understanding the quality and coverage of administrative data.

I hope this is useful to the Committee, and please let me know if we can provide any further assistance to this inquiry.

Yours sincerely,

Jonathan Athow

Deputy National Statistician and Director General, Economic Statistics
Office for National Statistics

 

Public Services Committee: Child Vulnerability written evidence

Introduction

In recent years, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a range of data and statistics relating to vulnerable children, shining a light on this important issue. We include in this written evidence examples of how we are working hard and in different ways to improve the evidence base. This includes our recent work to explore what matters most to children’s well-being and provide insight into loneliness among children and young people, the Centre for Crime and Justice’s work to investigate the feasibility of a new survey to measure the current prevalence of child abuse in the UK and the Centre for Equalities and Inclusion’s work with both the Inclusive Data Taskforce and the UNECE Taskforce on statistics on children and youth, both of which are considering the issues surrounding data for children.

Collecting data on child vulnerability can be challenging for several reasons. For practical and ethical reasons, children are not routinely questioned in many of our household surveys – these include the Crime Survey for England and Wales and the Mental Health of Children and Young People’s Survey – other than a small number specifically designed to target children. Where data for children are included, this information is often collected by proxy, an issue that is equally relevant to administrative data. Moreover, some of the most vulnerable children are likely to be part of the non-private household populations, which includes those who are resident in communal establishments, rough sleeping, living in temporary accommodation or staying temporarily with family or friends, populations that are not currently included as part of routine survey data collection.

Therefore, we are exploring the use of administrative data as a way to supplement some of the gaps in the child vulnerability evidence base, both in terms of its potential for producing estimates of population characteristics and outcomes for groups including children, and its use in data linkage.

Children’s well-being

In October 2020, the ONS published findings from UK wide focus groups with children aged 10 to 16, including young carers and children with disabilities, around what matters most to their well-being. These included the importance of positive, supporting, and loving relationships; feeling safe in various contexts; financial security; having a say in issues which affect them and their views being taking seriously; and prospects for a positive future, including opportunities to develop skills to pursue future endeavours and addressing issues relating to the environment, such as climate change. Particularly, the group of young carers emphasised the importance of parents and carers “making space” for their children, including spending quality time together and teaching children important life skills and values. Young carers also described how poor physical health of family members affected their mental health.

From these discussions with children, as well as a literature review, data audit, and stakeholder and expert feedback, we reviewed our indicators for children’s well-being to update the current framework, which is in the process of being finalised following stakeholder feedback via an online consultation. The updated framework will aim to provide a better picture of children at greater risk of disadvantage, disaggregating well-being measures by risk group where possible, including young carers, care experienced children and children with disabilities. The finalised list of children’s well-being indicators and update are expected to be published later this year.

The ONS’ 2018 release on children’s well-being and social relationships noted a significant drop in children’s happiness with their friends. This is concerning as during the focus groups, children spoke about the importance of having good friendships and spending time with friends, which were often listed as one of the top three things that matter most for children to live a happy life. In addition, our 2018 analysis of children’s experiences of loneliness found that of those children who reported low satisfaction with their friendships, 41.1% reported that they often felt lonely.

We worked collaboratively with The Children’s Society to provide insight into and begin to address the data gap on loneliness among children and young people, through analysis of children’s and young people’s views, experiences and suggestions to overcome loneliness, using in-depth interviews and the Good Childhood Index Survey. Children who received free school meals and children who reported low satisfaction with their health were much more likely to report that they were often lonely than other children. The stigma around loneliness can worsen children’s experiences of loneliness and prevent their situations from improving. In the qualitative interviews, children described embarrassment about admitting to loneliness, seeing it as a possible “failing”. The intersection of multiple issues and triggers to loneliness, or more extreme and enduring life events such as bereavement, disability, being bullied or mental health challenges, may make it more difficult for children and young people to move out of loneliness without help. Children’s suggestions for tackling loneliness included: making it more acceptable to discuss loneliness at school and in society; preparing young people better to understand and address loneliness in themselves and others; creating opportunities for social connection; and encouraging positive uses of social media.

Our weekly Opinions and Lifestyle Survey also recently looked at the well-being of children whilst home-schooling in 2020 and 2021, finding that almost two-thirds (63%) of home schooling parents said that home schooling was negatively affecting their children’s well-being in January 2021, compared with 43% in April 2020.

We have recently published data on the worries of parents around their children returning to school, finding almost half (47%) of adults with dependent school aged children were worried (very or somewhat) about their children returning to school or college.

Children’s mental health

In addition to our work on children’s wellbeing, the ONS and NHS Digital published data last year looking at the mental health of children and young people in England in 2020. This took a longitudinal look at the mental health of the same group of children in 2017 and 2020, finding rates of probable mental disorders have increased since 2017 (10.8% in 2017, 16.0% in 2020). Children and young people with a probable mental disorder were also more likely to say that lockdown had made their life worse (54.1% of 11 to 16-year olds), than those unlikely to have a mental disorder (39.2%). This study is currently being updated for 2021 and will be published by NHS Digital and the ONS later this year.

Extent of child abuse

The ONS Centre for Crime and Justice measure children’s experiences of being a victim of crime, as well as risks of victimisation. The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) asks people resident in households in England and Wales about their experiences of victimisation in the 12 months prior to the interview. Every three years additional questions on experiences of abuse they may have suffered as a child and adverse childhood experiences are included. In households with children aged 10 to 15 years, a child is also interviewed. The 10- to 15-year-olds’ questionnaire collects data on the prevalence and nature of a selected range of offences as well their experiences online, of bullying, drinking and drug use, street gangs, and their feelings of safety and risk perception.

Selected data are usually published through our quarterly crime statistics publications and annual nature of crime tables. We also publish ad-hoc releases relating to children’s vulnerability, such as analysis of the victimisation and negative behaviours of children aged 10 to 15 years living in a household with an adult who reported experiencing domestic abuse, substance misuse and mental ill-health.

Analysis of children’s experiences meeting and speaking to people online, sending and receiving sexual messages, online bullying and online security are published in Children’s online behaviour in England and Wales, year ending March 2020[15] and Online bullying in England and Wales, year ending March 2020. Data from the CSEW is also available to researchers through the UK Data Service and the ONS Secure Research Service.

In January 2020 we also published the first compendium of statistics on child abuse for England and Wales, bringing together a range of different data sources from across government and the voluntary sector. Key points from this include that the CSEW estimates that one in five adults aged 18 to 74 years experienced at least one form of child abuse, whether emotional abuse, physical abuse, sexual abuse, or witnessing domestic violence or abuse, before the age of 16 years (8.5 million people). In addition, an estimated 1 in 100 adults aged 18 to 74 years experienced physical neglect before the age of 16 years (481,000 people); this includes not being taken care of or not having enough food, shelter or clothing, but it does not cover all types of neglect. An estimated 3.1 million adults aged 18 to 74 years were victims of sexual abuse before the age of 16 years; this includes abuse by both adult and child perpetrators. Around half of adults (52%) who experienced abuse before the age of 16 years also experienced domestic abuse later in life, compared with 13% of those who did not experience abuse before the age of 16 years.

Childline delivered 19,847 counselling sessions to children in the UK where abuse was the primary concern in the year ending March 2019; sexual abuse accounted for nearly half (45%) of these and has become the most common type of abuse counselled by Childline in recent years.

Ultimately, many cases of child abuse remain hidden: around one in seven adults who called the National Association for People Abused in Childhood’s (NAPAC’s) helpline had not told anyone about their abuse before.

Finally, we are currently consulting on the feasibility of a new survey to measure the current prevalence of child abuse in the UK and recently published findings to date from the first stages of this research to address this fundamental evidence gap.

Inclusive Data Taskforce

In October 2020, the National Statistician established the Inclusive Data Taskforce with the aim of making a radical step-change in the inclusivity of UK data and evidence. As part of their work, the Taskforce have identified areas where they will focus in greater depth, including data for children.

The Taskforce are currently gathering evidence of perceived gaps in the inclusivity of UK data and evidence generally, including its quality, topic coverage, timeliness, geographical granularity, and accessibility. As part of this, the ONS are conducting an online consultation on behalf of the Taskforce as well roundtable discussions, focus groups and in-depth interviews with: government stakeholders including the Devolved Administrations, central and local government, academics, research funders, learned societies, and civil society organisations representing equalities groups (including children and young people) and members of the public from those groups.

Along with other written evidence and submissions to the Taskforce, the findings from these consultations will inform the recommendations of the Taskforce to the National Statistician, expected in July of this year. If this Committee has identified particular concerns about data for vulnerable children that they would like to share with the Taskforce to inform their recommendations, we would be happy to bring them to their attention.

UNECE taskforce for Statistics on Children and Youth

We are also contributing to the UNECE taskforce for Statistics on Children and Youth. The objective of this taskforce is to prepare guidance to improve the availability, quality and comparability of statistics on children, adolescents and youth towards more harmonised and rationalised definitions, methodologies and approaches across the countries participating in the Conference of European Statisticians. Identified as having significant evidence gaps, the priority areas of focus are disability, violence against children, and alternative or out-of-home care.

Administrative Data

As previously mentioned, the ONS is investigating the use of administrative data as a way to supplement some of the gaps in the child vulnerability evidence base. In relation to data linkage, we have partnered with Administrative Data Research UK (ADR UK) as part of the Data for Children Partnership, a strategic partnership which includes the Office of the Children’s Commissioner for England, academics, charities and other government departments. This partnership has been developing a dataset which links 2011 Census data to English administrative educational data, to explore the relationship between educational attainment and characteristics that are not routinely included in administrative data and at a more granular level than could be achieved with a sample survey source.

Office for Statistics Regulation written evidence to the Lords Public Services Committee’s inquiry on ‘Levelling up’ and public services

Dear Lady Armstrong

‘Levelling up’ and public services inquiry

Thank you for giving the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) the opportunity to comment on the following questions:

  • Are there gaps in regional/local data sets (particularly for health, education, justice and wellbeing outcomes) which may impact upon the Government’s ability to target investment, and for Government success to be measured?
  • How can we ensure transparency and access to the data sets that the Government is using, to ensure Parliament can scrutinise decisions as to where money is prioritised, and the effectiveness of such investments?

OSR’s Strategic Business Plan sets out our vision and priorities for 2020-2025 and how we will contribute to fostering the UK Statistics Authority’s ambitions for the statistics system, as set out in the Authority Strategy. One of OSR’s ambitions is that, by 2025, the statistical system will provide much a richer picture of the UK’s changing economy and society. Statistics should not simply focus on the average, but instead provide disaggregated and granular insight into how different communities, places and people are doing. As regulator of government statistics, we will assess whether statistics provide regional, local and disaggregated pictures of society. We will challenge producers to produce more granular statistics, about ethnicity for example, and to respond to changing aspects of social identity and economic activity. Our systemic reviews will uncover areas where the needs of a wide range of users are not being met, and challenge producers to address these needs and gaps. Where producers do not address these issues, we will continue to highlight our concerns and criticism publicly.

There are a number of gaps in data – both in terms of personal characteristics and low levels of geography – which our previous work has highlighted; we also consider a lack of timeliness or comparability across the UK to be characteristic of data gaps. I wrote a blog on data gaps to initiate some work OSR is doing on the process of demystifying data gaps, building on our growing understanding of how different statistical producers have addressed them. We are still building up our case examples of what works to address gaps, but one striking early conclusion is the importance of collaboration between different producers. And, over recent years, we are pleased that departments are innovating in data collection or processing methods to fill gaps.

This letter addresses your questions about health, education, justice and wellbeing data in more detail, but gaps in data are a widespread problem. During the past year, for example, we have: reviewed statistics and found data gaps in areas such as the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) internet access and use statistics; seen that the ONS has the potential to do more analysis on alternative methods with the microdata provided by the Valuation Office Agency for the Consumer Price Inflation, including Owner-Occupied Housing Costs (CPIH); and despite positive changes, noted that data gaps remain in Housing and Planning statistics.

Data gaps in public health, health care and social care

As our report on Adult Social Care statistics noted, “While there is rightly a focus on delivery, a scarcity of funding has led to under investment in data and analysis, making it harder for individuals and organisations to make informed decisions. This needs to be addressed” across both social care and health care to ensure the system is sustainable for the management of future public health crises. During 2020, we have called for better statistics to understand and take action to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. The immense effort required to re-work existing, or develop new, data collections has shown the administrative data systems used to collect information about public health are not suitable for the timely production of official statistics. The development of the UK COVID-19 data dashboard is a welcome innovation, but it would have been good to see data of sufficient granularity to meet the needs of the public sooner.

Our report about social care statistics in England highlighted a form of levelling up – that is, the work required to bring social care statistics to the levels of granularity and comprehensiveness of hospital care statistics. Additionally, the lack of joined-up data between health and social care has been a major data gap with serious consequences for many people during the pandemic. As well as improvements to social care, the opportunity afforded by the NHS White Paper in England could also enable the levelling up, in this sense, of primary health care data and mental health care data, as our report on adult mental health statistics in England outlined. Investment in IT infrastructure and staff skills will be needed to be able to accurately capture improvements in care outcomes that are provided by services such as these which take place out of hospital. We will continue to push for better social care data, working with technology leaders, such as NHSX.

Data gaps in education

Our report on the public value of post-16 education and skills in England noted “that better information about applicants to university would help shed light on social mobility. We also found that there are information gaps surrounding the further education workforce and workforce skills, which make planning to meet future demand difficult.” Across the UK, we found that “Significant gaps exist in statistics and data on individual student circumstances, in particular, about whether students are care leavers or have care experience. This information is self-reported and the data quality can be poor.” We continue to work with statistics producers to improve the information available.

Data gaps in poverty

Poverty remains a significant issue for the UK and has the potential to be of greater importance as we adjust to life following COVID-19, which is why we launched a systemic review on the coherence of poverty statistics in Autumn 2020. The volume of official data is difficult to navigate and does not reflect the changing nature of poverty or the unavoidable costs faced by low-income households, to the extent that stakeholders have developed new metrics outside the world of official statistics, including the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s destitution study and the Social Metrics Commission’s framework for measuring poverty. Our report on poverty statistics will be published shortly, which we can share with the Committee.

Data gaps in rough sleeping

We worked with statistics producers to encourage the development of new and improved data and statistics on rough sleeping, especially during the pandemic. We reported this in a blog, which noted that “robust statistical evidence needed to answer key questions about the experiences of UK rough sleepers since the start of the pandemic is still lacking. New management information on the numbers of rough sleepers, and those at risk of rough sleeping, who have been provided with emergency accommodation since the start of lockdown is now being collected by UK councils. However, this management information is not always recorded consistently, and in many cases remains unpublished.”

Closing the data gaps

There are some examples of good work being undertaken to close data gaps, helping to provide a high-quality evidence base to inform levelling up.

The ONS publishes information about societal and personal well-being in the UK looking beyond what we produce, to areas such as health, relationships, education and skills, what we do, where we live, our finances and the environment. The data are available at local authority level and address the widespread concern that standard measures of the economy do not reflect the underlying welfare and well-being of the population.

The ONS also publishes data for the environmental accounts, including access to green space in Great Britain in 2020, at a local geographic level and includes Natural England survey data on garden access in England, broken down by personal characteristics such as age and ethnicity. Again, this work addresses a concern that focusing on traditional measures of the economy does not capture the environmental consequences of economic activity.

There are endeavours to address data gaps in a range of other policy areas:

  • Health: We were pleased to see that the ONS is developing a Health Index for England, which should allow for benchmarking the progress of local authorities. The Health Index is an Experimental Statistic to measure a broad definition of health, in a way that can be tracked over time and compared between different areas. The domains include healthy people, healthy places and healthy lives.
  • Deprivation: The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) publishes English Indices of Multiple Deprivation. OSR reviewed the outputs and noted that MHCLG has worked with the University of Sheffield and MySociety to develop a new mapping tool which allows users to visualise the statistics at different geographical scales including new geographies that the statistics have not been presented by before: Westminster Parliamentary Constituencies and Travel to Work areas.
  • Justice: In collaboration with Administrative Data Research UK, the Ministry of Justice is undertaking a data linkage project called Data First. OSR’s review, The Public Value of Justice Statistics, highlighted the need for statistics that move from counting people as they interact with specific parts of the justice system to telling stories about the journeys people take. Data First will anonymously link data from across the family, civil and criminal courts in England and Wales, enabling research on how the justice system is used and enhancing the evidence base to understand what works to help tackle social and justice policy issues.

Transparency

OSR’s work is for statistics for the public good and one of our key tenets is to insist on transparency of data. Sometimes, particularly during the pandemic, the use of data has not consistently been supported by transparent information being provided in a timely manner. As a result, there is potential to confuse the public and undermine confidence in the statistics. It is important that data are shared in a way that promotes transparency and clarity. It should be published in a clear and accessible form with appropriate explanations of context and sources. It should be made available to all at the time the information is referenced publicly.

I hope this is useful to the Committee, and please do let me know if there is anything further I can do to assist with this inquiry or others.

 

Yours sincerely

Ed Humpherson

Director General for Regulation

Office for National Statistics written evidence to the Lords Science and Technology Committee’s inquiry on the Science of COVID-19

Dear Lord Patel,

I write in response to the Science and Technology Committee’s call for evidence for its inquiry on the science of COVID-19.

As the Committee may be aware, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s National Statistical Institute, and largest producer of official statistics. We aim to provide a firm evidence base for sound decisions and develop the role of official statistics in democratic debate. To do this during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we are regularly publishing detailed commentary on the impacts of COVID-19 on the UK economy and society, reacting quickly to the need for rapid information from both decision-makers and the public.

COVID-19 Infection Survey

One such development of particular interest to your inquiry is the COVID-19 Infection Survey. We are working in partnership with the Universities of Oxford and Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust to provide data from the Infection Survey for England. The survey helps track the extent of infection and transmission of COVID-19 within communities and helps address one of the most important questions the country needs to know – how many people in the UK have the coronavirus (COVID-19) infection at a given point in time.

Participants provide samples taken from self-administered nose and throat swabs to test whether they currently have the virus. They are asked to take tests every week for the first five weeks, then every month for 12 months. Around 10% of participants are also asked to provide a blood sample once a month for 12 months, taken by a trained nurse, phlebotomist or healthcare assistant. These blood tests will help determine what proportion of the population has developed antibodies to COVID-19. Participants are chosen from respondents to previous ONS surveys to create a representational sample of the whole population.

IQVIA, a human data science company, are running the field operation, the National Biosample Centre in Milton Keynes test the swab samples and Oxford University test the blood samples.

The vision for the COVID-19 Infection Survey was always that it should cover the whole of the UK and while the pilot was focused on England, we have been successful at securing support from each Devolved Administration. Working with the Welsh Government we extended the survey into Wales on 24 June with 500 households per week being contacted to take part. A further 500 households will be added each week as the survey continues to develop. The Northern Ireland launch is planned for the end of July and discussions with the Scottish Government have commenced.

To date, over 32,000 people in England have enrolled in the survey, with plans to extend this to over 300,000 over the next 12 months and all four UK nations.

As the ONS have extensive experience in running very large household surveys that gather vital information from a genuinely representative sample of the entire population, we are using that capability to help our health expert colleagues create a reliable picture of the scale of COVID-19 infection and antibody development. This will inform the key decisions that lie ahead in this pandemic, for example, it is vital for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) to calculate estimates of R, who are regularly publishing these on gov.uk.

Results from the survey have been published weekly since 14 May. The latest of these show that that the estimated number of people in England infected with COVID-19 has decreased since the start of the study, but that decline has levelled off in recent weeks. At any given point between 8 June and 21 June, an average of 51,000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 21,000 to 105,000) had COVID-19, compared to 145,000 (95% confidence interval: 92,000 to 216,000) between 27 April and 10 May. During the 14-day period from 8 June to 21 June, there were an estimated 4 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals per week in the community in England. This equates to an estimated 22,000 new cases per week (95% confidence interval: 10,000 to 49,000).

Results also show that around 5.4% (95% confidence interval: 4.3% to 6.5%) of individuals who provided blood samples tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19.

All estimates are subject to uncertainty, given that a sample is only part of the wider population. The 95% confidence intervals are calculated so that, if we were to repeat this study many times, with many different samples of households, then 95% of the time the confidence intervals would contain the true value that we are seeking to estimate.

Collaboration on the Infection Study is carried out in our Secure Research Service, a technology platform with a service wraparound which enables researchers to access Government deidentified, sensitive data safely and securely. It is the only government data lab that has enabled remote access, supporting significant research projects during lockdown. As the ONS is joint data controller, the Infection Study data will be made available for wider research, in line with the ONS’ vision of enhancing the use of the nation’s data assets.

Cross-Government Collaboration

The ONS are also working in partnership with the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC), IPSOS-MORI, University College London and Public Health England to deliver a COVID-19 surveillance study in care homes. The Vivaldi Study was commissioned by the DHSC and aims to measure the prevalence of COVID-19 in care homes and the use of disease control measures in each setting. This will inform decisions around the best approach to care home testing in the future. Information on the use of disease control measures will help local public health teams provide effective guidance to care homes. First results from the Vivaldi Study will be published on 3 July, which we will send to the Committee.

Additionally, the Best Practice and Impact Team from the ONS have supported the DHSC in producing the first two Test and Trace statistical publications and the first Personal Protection Equipment statistical publication to ensure best practise was used to communicate the statistics accurately and the methodology transparently.

I hope this evidence is helpful to the Committee, and I look forward to speaking to you on 6 July. Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of any further assistance.

Yours sincerely,

Iain Bell

Related links:

Iain Bell’s oral evidence (July 2020)

Office for Statistics Regulation written evidence to the Lords Democracy and Digital Technologies Committee’s inquiry of the same name

Dear Lord Puttnam,

Following my appearance before the Lords Democracy and Digital Technologies Committee on 28 January 2020, I am writing to offer my thanks for the invitation to contribute to such an important inquiry. I would also like to reiterate what I said to you in person: I really enjoyed the discussion and the opportunity to present the work of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to the Committee.

I also wanted to share a recent blog which describes our approach in protecting the role of statistics both during election periods and beyond. The blog summarises some of the interventions we made during the recent 2019 General Election and outlines our role in ensuring that the underlying statistics used in political debate are not being misrepresented – and if they are, that we will seek to clarify how they should be interpreted.

I would be very happy to discuss the content of the blog and the work of the OSR further with the Committee.

Yours sincerely

Ed Humpherson
Director General for Regulation

Related Links:

Office for Statistics Regulation oral evidence to Democracy and Digital Technologies Select Committee as part of their Democracy and Digital Technologies inquiry (January 2020)