Measuring tax gaps
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) statistics and methodological annexes relating to measuring tax gaps.
Documents
Details
This report provides an estimate of the tax gap across all taxes and duties administered by HMRC.
The tax gap is the difference between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid.
8 February 2022: Correction to ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’
HMRC have identified an error in the ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’ official statistics published in September 2021. This error caused an overestimation of the Corporation Tax gap and resulted in an overestimation of the overall tax gap in 2019 to 2020 and 2018 to 2019 of 0.1 percentage points in both years.
The corrected UK tax gap is estimated to be 5.2% of total theoretical tax liabilities (£34.8 billion) in 2019 to 2020 (0.1 percentage points or £0.6 billion lower than previously published) and 4.9% (£32.2 billion) in 2018 to 2019 (0.1 percentage points or £0.4 billion lower than previously published).
The corrected Corporation Tax gap is estimated to be 7.2% (£5.2 billion) in 2019 to 2020 (0.8 percentage points or £0.6 billion lower than previously published) and 7.3% (£4.7 billion) in 2018 to 2019 (0.6 percentage points or £0.4 billion lower than previously published).
These corrections will not be reflected in our ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021’ publication. HMRC has published a correction note on GOV.UK in the ‘Schedule of updates and announcements for HMRC’s statistics’ and the start of the ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’ publication to ensure users of the statistics easily access the corrected statistics.
HMRC’s next ‘Measuring tax gaps’ publication, which is planned for publication on 23 June 2022, will include revised estimates for the tax gap time series. The tax gap estimates will be corrected alongside other updates HMRC make to the tax gap time series to reflect the latest data available and methodological improvements.
If you have any queries relating to these statistics, please contact taxgap@hmrc.gov.uk.
User survey - help us improve ‘Measuring tax gaps’
We are interested in understanding more about how the outputs and data from the ‘Measuring tax gaps’ publication are used, and the decisions they inform. This is important for us so we can provide a high quality publication that meets your needs.
Complete the HMRC Measuring tax gaps 2021 user survey.
Survey responses are anonymous.
Methodological annex
The annex document provides more detail of the data and methodology used to produce estimates of the tax gap.
Online tables
The full data series can be seen in the online tables.
Archived tax gap reports
Previous editions of the tax gap reports are available on The National Archives website:
Further information and feedback
This statistical release has been produced by government analysts working within HMRC, in line with the values, principles and protocols set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
HMRC is committed to providing impartial quality statistics that meet user needs. We encourage users to engage with us so that we can improve the official statistics and identify gaps in the statistics that are produced.
If you have any questions or comments about the ‘Measuring tax gaps’ series please email taxgap@hmrc.gov.uk.
Last updated 8 February 2022 + show all updates
-
A correction note has been published on both the landing page and the start of the ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’ publication.
-
Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition - tax gap estimates for 2019 to 2020', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition - methodological annex'.
-
Added revision announcement to the 'Details' section.
-
Updated to correct errors identified in the behaviour breakdowns (pages 13 and 23) and the tobacco tax gap due to a correction in the cross-border shopping estimates (pages 20, 21, 25, 37, 41 to 46, and 54).
-
Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2020 edition - tax gap estimates for 2018 to 2019', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2020 edition - methodological annex'.
-
This release has been updated with a correction to the 2017 to 2018 lower estimate of the cigarette illicit market in Table 3.3.
-
Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2019 edition - tax gap estimates for 2017 to 2018', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2019 edition: Methodological annex'.
-
Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2018 edition - Tax gap estimates for 2016-17', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2018 edition: Methodological annex'.
-
Updated to publish 'Measuring tax gaps 2017 edition - Tax gap estimates for 2015-16', and 'Measuring tax gaps 2017 edition: Methodological annex'
-
New edition for 2016
-
Amend to page 5 of Measuring Tax Gaps; the value of the tax gap by customer group for Individuals has been corrected to show £2.9 billion (rather than £2.1 billion).
-
New edition for 2015
-
New edition for 2014
-
Update to include information for 2013
-
First published.