1. Tax gaps: Summary
Updated 23 June 2022
© Crown copyright 2022
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps/1-tax-gaps-summary
Overview
What the tax gap estimates show since tax year 2005 to 2006 up to 2020 to 2021
Figure 1.1 shows the value of the tax gap alongside the percentage it represents of the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC. Since 2005 to 2006, when it was estimated to be 7.5% (£33 billion), the tax gap has fallen to 5.1% (£32 billion) in 2020 to 2021. There were small peaks in 2008 to 2009 at 6.9% (£33 billion) and 2013 to 2014 at 7.2% (£38 billion), with a low of 4.9% in 2018 to 2019. The tax gap has remained at low levels since 2017 to 2018.
While the tax gap value (£ billions) was fairly flat over the time series, the percentage tax gap decreased due to theoretical tax liabilities increasing between tax years 2005 to 2006 and 2020 to 2021 from £436 billion to £635 billion.
The full data series can be seen in the online tables.
Figure 1.1: Tax gap by value and as a percentage of theoretical tax liabilities, 2005 to 2006 up to 2020 to 2021
Note for Figure 1.1
- Figures for previous years have been revised following methodological improvements and incorporating more up-to-date data.
For a summary of the headline results for each tax type, see the ‘Main findings’ section.
The percentage tax gap gives us a better measure of compliance over time. It takes into account the effects of inflation, economic growth and changes to tax rates, whereas the cash figure does not. For instance, in a growing economy where the tax base is increasing, even if the percentage tax gap remained level, the cash figure would grow.
Read the full list of rates and allowances.
The models that make up the tax gap estimate have varied levels of underlying uncertainty. We have rated the uncertainty of 2020 to 2021 estimates for each model based on the model scope, the methodology used and the data sources underpinning the estimates. Further details are available in the ‘Uncertainty’ section of this chapter, and the ‘Methodology and data issues’ section of subsequent chapters.
The tax gap estimates are also subject to revisions in future years. See the ‘Revisions to tax gap estimates’ section of this chapter for further information on revisions to estimates from previous years.
The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ slightly to those in the separate published tax gap breakdowns. We use published receipts figures in this chapter as liability figures are not available at the level required across all tax types. Read the published receipts figures used in this chapter.
Tax gap by type of tax
Figure 1.2: Tax gap by type of tax – value and share of tax gap, 2020 to 2021
Figure 1.2 shows how the tax gap is composed of different taxes. It shows that 2 components, one covering Income Tax, National Insurance contributions (NICs) and Capital Gains Tax at 39% and the other VAT at 28%, account for two-thirds of the tax gap. These two components also have the two largest total theoretical tax liability values, as shown in Figure 1.3. Corporation Tax, Excise duties and Other taxes account for the remaining portion at 17%, 11% and 4% respectively.
Tax | Value | Share of tax gap |
---|---|---|
IT, NICs and CGT | £12.7bn | 39% |
Value Added Tax | £9.0bn | 28% |
Corporation Tax | £5.6bn | 17% |
Excise duties | £3.5bn | 11% |
Other taxes | £1.4bn | 4% |
Notes for Figure 1.2
-
Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding to the nearest £100 million or 1%.
-
‘IT, NICs and CGT’ refers to Income Tax, National Insurance contributions and Capital Gains Tax.
-
‘%’ refers to percentage of the total tax gap.
-
‘Other taxes’ includes ‘Other taxes, levies and duties’ (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Customs Duty, Climate Change Levy, Digital Services Tax, Insurance Premium Tax, Soft Drinks Industry Levy), Landfill Tax and direct taxes (stamp taxes, Inheritance Tax).
-
The Petroleum Revenue Tax gap is not calculated from tax year 2015 to 2016 as it was permanently zero-rated from 1 January 2016 and is therefore excluded from this figure.
Figure 1.3: Tax gap by type of tax – value and share of total theoretical tax liabilities, 2020 to 2021
Figure 1.3 shows the total theoretical tax liability by type of tax, broken down by tax gap share. By total theoretical tax liability, we mean the total amount of that type of tax that is theoretically due. It shows that while the tax gap for Income Tax, NICs and Capital Gains Tax is the biggest at £12.7 billion (see Figure 1.2), this represents 3.5% of total Income Tax, NICs and Capital Gains Tax theoretical tax liabilities, and the VAT gap at £9.0 billion represents 7.0% of VAT total theoretical tax liabilities. Corporation Tax, Excise duties and Other taxes are estimated to have tax gaps of 9.2%, 7.2% and 4.2% of their respective total theoretical tax liabilities.
Type of tax | Total theoretical tax liabilities | Percentage tax gap |
---|---|---|
IT, NICs and CGT | £364.0bn | 3.5% |
Value Added Tax (VAT) | £129.4bn | 7.0% |
Corporation Tax | £60.4bn | 9.2% |
Excise duties | £49.4bn | 7.2% |
Other taxes | £31.9bn | 4.2% |
Notes for Figure 1.3
-
The percentage tax gaps are as a proportion of total theoretical tax liabilities.
-
The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between this section and the separate published tax gap figures. We use published receipts figures in this chapter as liability figures are not available at the level required across all tax types. Read the published receipts figures used in this section on GOV.UK.
-
‘Other taxes’ includes ‘Other taxes, levies and duties’ (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Customs Duty, Climate Change Levy, Digital Services Tax, Insurance Premium Tax, Soft Drinks Industry Levy), Landfill Tax and direct taxes (stamp taxes, Inheritance Tax).
Figure 1.4: Tax gap as percentage of total theoretical tax liabilities by type of tax
Figure 1.4 shows the trend in the tax gaps over time. The largest proportionate fall between 2005 to 2006 and 2020 to 2021 is the VAT gap. The tax gaps for Corporation Tax and Excise duties show smaller proportionate falls, while the tax gaps for the Other taxes and Income Tax, NICs and Capital Gains Tax have remained relatively constant.
Notes for Figure 1.4
-
Figures for previous years have been revised.
-
The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between this section and the separate published tax gap figures. We use published receipts figures in this chapter as liability figures are not available at the level required across all tax types. Read the published receipts figures used in this section on GOV.UK.
-
‘Other taxes’ includes ‘Other taxes, levies and duties’ (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Customs Duty, Climate Change Levy, Digital Services Tax, Insurance Premium Tax, Soft Drinks Industry Levy), Landfill Tax and direct taxes (stamp taxes, Inheritance Tax, Petroleum Revenue Tax for years prior to 2015 to 2016).
-
The Petroleum Revenue Tax gap is not calculated from 2015 to 2016, as it was permanently zero rated from 1 January 2016.
In the online tables published on GOV.UK:
-
Table 1.1 shows the composition of the tax gap estimates for 2020 to 2021
-
Table 1.2 shows the percentage tax gap since 2005 to 2006 by type of tax
-
Table 1.3 shows a time series of the tax gap (cash figure) by type of tax since 2005 to 2006
Tax gap by customer group
Every year, HMRC collects revenues from millions of individuals and businesses of all sizes. To help us do this, we segment our customers into groups so we can identify their needs and risks more accurately and tailor our responses – whether that’s by providing appropriate support to help customers get their tax right, or by taking targeted action to tackle avoidance, evasion and criminal activity.
Tax gap measurements are aligned with this customer segmentation, so we can use the insights gained to improve how we manage these customer groups:
-
individuals
-
wealthy
-
small businesses
-
mid-sized businesses
-
large businesses
-
criminals
We use the tax gap to understand what drives non-compliance and to provide a foundation for our compliance strategy.
You can read more about HMRC’s strategy to build a trusted, modern tax administration system and how we tackle tax avoidance and evasion.
Figure 1.5 shows the tax gaps by customer group for the tax year 2020 to 2021. The tax gap breakdown by customer group is primarily based on data – however, as some judgement and assumptions are involved, the estimates are subject to uncertainty, which cannot be accurately quantified.
In 2020 to 2021, 48% (£15.6 billion) of the tax gap is attributed to small businesses, whereas wealthy customers and individuals account for the smallest share of the tax gap at 5% (£1.5 billion) and 8% (£2.5 billion) respectively.
Criminals account for 16% (£5.2 billion) of the tax gap, with similar estimates for mid-sized businesses at 12% (£3.9 billion) and large businesses at 11% (£3.6 billion).
Figure 1.5: Tax gap by customer group – value and share of tax gap, 2020 to 2021
Customer group | Value | Share of tax gap |
---|---|---|
Small businesses | £15.6bn | 48% |
Criminals | £5.2bn | 16% |
Mid-sized businesses | £3.9bn | 12% |
Large businesses | £3.6bn | 11% |
Individuals | £2.5bn | 8% |
Wealthy | £1.5bn | 5% |
Notes for Figure 1.5
-
Totals may not appear to sum due to rounding to the nearest £100 million or 1%.
-
‘%’ refers to percentage of the total tax gap.
Table 1.4 in the online tables shows a time series of the tax gap by customer group, as a percentage of total theoretical tax liabilities. The customer group breakdown for this year has changed, with the small business share increasing, and the mid-sized and large business shares decreasing. This is driven by a decrease in the VAT gap and an increase in the Self Assessment gap.
Tax gap measurement
Definition
The tax gap is the difference between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and the amount that is actually paid.
The ‘theoretical tax liability’ is the amount of tax that would be paid if all individuals, businesses and companies complied with the letter of the law and our interpretation of Parliament’s intention in setting the law (referred to as the ‘spirit’ of the law). The total theoretical tax liability is calculated as the tax gap, plus the amount of tax actually received by HMRC.
The tax gap estimates only cover the taxes administered by HMRC, so they exclude any taxes and duties administered elsewhere, like Council Tax, business rates and Vehicle Excise Duty for example, as well as charges such as the congestion charge. These estimates also exclude error and fraud in tax credits, which is published separately. Read the ‘Child and Working Tax Credits error and fraud statistics 2020 to 2021’.
Estimates of error and fraud arising through the coronavirus (COVID-19) support schemes are not covered in this publication. The COVID-19 support scheme error and fraud estimates for the year ending 31 March 2021 were published in the Annual Report and Accounts (ARA) for 2020 to 2021. Read further breakdowns and detail on the estimates in ‘Measuring error and fraud in the COVID-19 support schemes: methodology and approach’. Updated estimates of error and fraud in the COVID-19 support schemes will be published in HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts for 2021 to 2022.
Tax gaps are calculated net of compliance yield — that is, they reflect the gap remaining after HMRC’s compliance work. More information on compliance yield is available in HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts.
The ‘Methodological annex’ sets out how compliance yield is reflected in estimations for each component of the tax gap. Information in HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts and ‘Measuring tax gaps’ publications are not directly comparable. You can read more information on how the methodology for measuring tax yield in HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts differs from the methodology for how compliance yield is reflected in the tax gap estimates.
Measurement methods
There are numerous approaches to measuring tax gaps. VAT and Excise duty gaps are mainly estimated using a ‘top-down’ approach, by comparing the implied tax due from consumer expenditure data with tax receipts. Most other components are estimated using a ‘bottom-up’ approach, based on HMRC’s operational data and management information. The way we estimate each tax gap component and the data we use is set out in the relevant chapters, with additional information in the ‘Methodological annex’.
Top-down estimates
A ‘top-down’ approach uses independent, external data on consumption to estimate the tax base. The tax base is used to calculate a theoretical value of tax that should be paid. The actual amount of tax paid is subtracted from this theoretical value to estimate the tax gap.
Bottom-up estimates
In ‘bottom-up’ approaches, HMRC uses internal data and operational knowledge to identify areas of potential tax loss. Different methods and data sources are used to estimate how much tax is lost within each area. These estimates are combined to estimate the tax gap.
The total tax gap is estimated using some established statistical methods and some experimental methods. Figure 1.6 shows that 79% (£25.4 billion) of the 2020 to 2021 tax gap is estimated using established methods. The remainder, 21% (£6.8 billion) of the tax gap is estimated using experimental methods. Experimental methodologies are used to produce illustrative estimates where there is no direct measurement data. For these tax gap components, we use the best available data, simple models and assumptions to build an illustrative estimate of the tax gap.
Figure 1.6: Value and share of tax gap by type of methodology, 2020 to 2021
Methodology type | Value | Share of tax gap |
---|---|---|
Established | £25.4bn | 79% |
Experimental | £6.8bn | 21% |
Note for Figure 1.6
- ‘%’ refers to percentage of the total tax gap.
Accuracy and reliability
Our tax gap estimates are official statistics produced to the highest levels of quality and adhere to the UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for Statistics framework. This framework ensures statistics are trustworthy, good quality, valuable and provide producers of official statistics with the detailed practices they must commit to when producing and releasing official statistics.
A ‘Measuring tax gaps’ quality report accompanies this statistical release, providing information about the quality of outputs, as set out by the Code of Practice for Statistics. This sets out the measures we have taken to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the tax gap estimates.
Uncertainty
Uncertainty relates to a range of factors that can affect the accuracy of a statistic, including the impact of measurement or sampling error (related to sample surveys) and all other sources of bias and variance that exist in a data source.
To evaluate the uncertainty of our 2020 to 2021 tax gap estimates in a systematic and transparent way, we assign an uncertainty rating for each tax gap component in Table 1.1, ranging from ‘very low’ to ‘very high’. The rating is derived from assessing the uncertainty arising from 3 sources: the model scope, the methodology used and the data underpinning the estimate.
In 2020 to 2021 the proportion of the tax gap estimate with a ‘low’ or ‘medium’ uncertainty rating was 71%, based on 31% (£10.0 billion) in ‘low’ and 40% (£12.8 billion) in ‘medium’. While no models fall within the ‘very low’ uncertainty rating, 12% (£3.8 billion) and 18% (£5.7 billion) have uncertainty ratings in ‘high’ and ‘very high’ respectively. Generally, levels of uncertainty are lowest for the components of the tax gap using established bottom-up random enquiry programmes or top-down models such as the VAT gap.
The spread of uncertainty ratings has changed, compared to the ratings for the 2019 to 2020 estimates presented in ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’. The proportion of the share of tax gap in ‘very low’ remains unchanged (0% in both publications), the proportion in ‘low’ has decreased from 63% to 31%, and the proportions in ‘medium’ (19% to 40%), ‘high’ (6% to 12%) and ‘very high’ (12% to 18%) have increased. The general trend of increasing uncertainty is explored more in the ‘Impact of COVID-19 on tax gaps estimates’ section.
Figure 1.7: Share of tax gap by uncertainty rating, 2020 to 2021
Uncertainty rating | MTG22 | MTG21 |
---|---|---|
Very Low | 0% | 0% |
Low | 31% | 63% |
Medium | 40% | 19% |
High | 12% | 6% |
Very high | 18% | 12% |
Notes for Figure 1.7
-
MTG stands for ‘Measuring tax gaps’.
-
Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
-
‘%’ refers to percentage of the total tax gap.
-
The breakdown of uncertainty ratings for ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’ may differ from the breakdown published last year, due to the inclusion of the correction to the Corporation Tax estimate.
Additional information on the uncertainty rating for each component of the tax gap can be found in the ‘Methodology and data issues’ section in subsequent chapters. Further information on the uncertainty rating assessment of different methodologies can be found in the ‘Methodological annex’.
Impact of COVID-19 on tax gap estimates
The estimates for 2020 to 2021 are subject to more uncertainty than usual due to COVID-19. Previous tax gap estimates for years up to 2019 to 2020 were not materially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. While every effort has been made during the pandemic to collect and update data on as complete and comparable a basis as possible, important differences from earlier years’ estimates remain. In most instances, new data for 2020 to 2021 is available, but needs interpreting in the context of the pandemic situation. The estimate for 2020 to 2021 is the best assessment based on the evidence available at this time. Our established tax gap methodologies have been used to produce the 2020 to 2021 tax gap estimate. However, we have had to make three specific adjustments to take account of the impact of COVID-19 in some of the input data used in the estimation process to maintain consistency in our time series:
-
compliance yield relating to Income Tax Self Assessment: the tax gap estimates are calculated with reference to year of liability. We have analysed which years’ liabilities were affected by the compliance enquiries closed in 2020 to 2021 and assigned the impact of the drop in compliance yield to the relevant years. This preserves consistency in the time series. The adjustment to compliance yield has only been applied to Self Assessment as there is not a material difference in compliance yield trends for other taxes
-
non-payment relating to Self Assessment: we have made a specific adjustment which assumes that losses from write-offs and remissions from those cases where insolvency was paused during the pandemic will return to historic trends
-
VAT receipts: the 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021 net receipts figures in the VAT gap estimates include an adjustment for payments that were deferred under the VAT Payments Deferral Scheme, a key fiscal support measure in the UK government’s response to COVID-19
Other changes to data are:
-
random enquiry programme (REP) data: the latest Self Assessment and Corporation Tax small business REP data available is from 2017 to 2018, and these elements of the tax gap are projected for 3 years, an extra year compared to previous publications, due to increased REP uncertainties from different ways of working cases during the pandemic, more time for 2018 to 2019 REP cases to close and to complete assurance and validation of the results
-
survey data: for the alcohol and tobacco tax gaps, the cross-border shopping and duty-free components are projected for 2020 to 2021 as the collection of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) International Passenger Survey data was paused for 9 months due to COVID-19 restrictions. The collection of tobacco consumption data from the ONS ‘Opinions and Lifestyle Survey’ was also stopped due to reallocating fieldwork to COVID-19 survey questions. However, this has not affected the tobacco tax gap in ‘Measuring tax gaps 2022 edition’, as the estimates are being projected due to previous survey changes implemented in 2018. The production of the ONS Living Costs and Food Survey expenditure data was also delayed, meaning that the 2020 to 2021 beer and spirits tax gaps were estimated using provisional data, which is subject to revision
Tax gap: detailed breakdown
Table 1.1: Tax gap components 2020 to 2021 estimates
Tax | Type | Component | Percentage tax gap | Point estimate (£ billion) | Uncertainty rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Value Added Tax | Total VAT | Total VAT | 7.0% | 9.0 | Low |
Excise duty | Tobacco duty | Cigarette duty | 8.6% | 0.7 | High |
Excise duty | Tobacco duty | Hand-rolling tobacco duty | 34.9% | 1.2 | High |
Excise duty | Tobacco duty | Total tobacco duty | 16.2% | 1.9 | — |
Excise duty | Alcohol duty | Spirits duties | 1.7% | 0.1 | Medium |
Excise duty | Alcohol duty | Beer duty | 18.9% | 0.7 | Medium |
Excise duty | Alcohol duty | Total alcohol duties | 9.9% | 0.8 | — |
Excise duty | Hydrocarbon oils duty | Hydrocarbon oils duty | 0.5% | 0.1 | Low |
Excise duty | Other Excise duties | Other Excise duties | 8.5% | 0.7 | Very high |
Excise duty | Total Excise duties | Total Excise duties | 7.2% | 3.5 | — |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Self Assessment | Non-business taxpayers | 8.4% | 1.7 | Medium |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Self Assessment | Business taxpayers | 22.5% | 4.6 | Medium |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Self Assessment | Large partnerships | 8.9% | 1.1 | Very high |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Total Self Assessment | Total Self Assessment | 13.9% | 7.4 | — |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | PAYE | Small business employers | 1.2% | 0.8 | Low |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | PAYE | Mid-sized business employers | 0.5% | 0.4 | Medium |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | PAYE | Large business employers | 1.1% | 1.6 | Very high |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Total PAYE | Total PAYE | 0.9% | 2.9 | — |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Total avoidance | Total avoidance | — | 0.4 | Very high |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Hidden economy | Ghosts | — | 1.1 | Very high |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Hidden economy | Moonlighters | — | 0.9 | High |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Total hidden economy | Total hidden economy | — | 2.0 | — |
Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Total Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | Total Income Tax, NICs, Capital Gains Tax | 3.5% | 12.7 | — |
Corporation Tax | Corporation Tax | Small businesses | 19.7% | 3.7 | Medium |
Corporation Tax | Corporation Tax | Mid-sized businesses | 10.0% | 1.3 | Medium |
Corporation Tax | Corporation Tax | Large businesses | 2.2% | 0.6 | High |
Corporation Tax | Total Corporation Tax | Total Corporation Tax | 9.2% | 5.6 | — |
Other taxes | Stamp taxes | Stamp Duty Land Tax | 2.0% | 0.2 | High |
Other taxes | Stamp taxes | Stamp Duty Reserve Tax | 1.0% | <0.1 | Very high |
Other taxes | Total stamp taxes | Total stamp taxes | 1.7% | 0.2 | — |
Other taxes | Inheritance Tax | Inheritance Tax | 6.4% | 0.4 | Medium |
Other taxes | Landfill Tax | Landfill Tax | 17.1% | 0.1 | High |
Other taxes | Other taxes, levies and duties | Other taxes, levies and duties | 5.1% | 0.7 | Very high |
Other taxes | Total Other taxes | Total Other taxes | 4.2% | 1.4 | — |
Total tax gap | Total tax gap | Total tax gap | 5.1% | 32 | — |
Notes for Table 1.1
-
The percentage tax gap is the tax gap pound value as a proportion of theoretical tax liability, where theoretical tax liability is defined as the tax gap plus the amount of tax actually received. Estimates are rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
-
The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between this section and the separate published tax gap figures. We use published receipts figures in this chapter as liability figures are not available at the level required across all tax types. Read the published receipts figures used in this section on GOV.UK.
-
The overall tax gap is rounded to the nearest £1 billion. Other estimates are rounded to the nearest £100 million.
-
All Excise duty gap point estimates and percentage tax gaps include duty only.
-
‘Other Excise duties’ includes betting and gaming duties, cider and perry duties, spirit-based ready-to-drink duties and wine duties.
-
Ghosts are individuals whose entire income is unknown to HMRC.
-
Moonlighters are individuals who are known to us in relation to part of their income, but who have other sources of income that HMRC does not know about.
-
‘Other taxes’ includes ‘Other taxes, levies and duties’ (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Customs Duty, Climate Change Levy, Digital Services Tax, Insurance Premium Tax, Soft Drinks Industry Levy), Landfill Tax and direct taxes (stamp taxes, Inheritance Tax).
-
The Petroleum Revenue Tax gap is not calculated from tax year 2016 to 2017 as it was permanently zero-rated from 1 January 2016 and is therefore excluded from this table.
-
Uncertainty ratings range from ‘very low’ to ‘very high’ uncertainty. See the ‘Methodological annex’ for further information.
Measuring tax gaps tables
A full set of the ‘Measuring tax gaps’ tables and tax gap time series is published on GOV.UK. These have been revised and updated for methodological revisions detailed in this publication up to and including 2020 to 2021.
Revisions to tax gap estimates
Many tax gap component estimates have been revised since ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’. This is due to improvements in the way they are calculated, the availability of more up-to-date data and projections based on more recent years’ information. These tax gap estimates adhere to the framework for the Code of Practice for Statistics. This code assures revisions or corrections are handled transparently and released as soon as practicable.
Since the ‘Measuring tax gaps 2021 edition’ was published, HMRC identified an error, causing an overestimation of the Corporation Tax gap and resulting in an overestimation of the overall tax gap in 2019 to 2020 and 2018 to 2019 of 0.1 percentage points in both years. This year’s Corporation Tax gap estimates reflect this correction.
Figure 1.8 shows the revisions made to the overall tax gap estimates for editions published since the ‘Measuring tax gaps 2018 edition’. This illustrates the uncertainty around the estimation of tax gaps and highlights why they are best used as a long-term indicator of compliance.
Figure 1.8: Revisions to the tax gap as a percentage of total theoretical tax liabilities compared to previous editions
Note for Figure 1.8
- MTG stands for ‘Measuring tax gaps’.
Table 1.7 in the online tables summarises the amount of revision for each component of the tax gap.
The main reasons for the revisions include updated information on consumer expenditure from the ONS to produce VAT gap estimates, additional information through completed random enquiry programmes (REPs) and methodological improvements.
Further information is available within the relevant chapters:
Go directly to other pages in this report:
Complete the HMRC Measuring tax gaps 2022 user survey.